Pace of Idaho’s COVID-19 spike appears to slow. State says Boise area still at high risk

The pace of Idaho’s COVID-19 spike appears to be slowing, according to statewide data.

But state health authorities maintain that the Boise area is still at the highest-risk status.

On Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Ada County had shifted down from high to medium risk — a change that, per CDC guidelines, removes a universal indoor masking recommendation.

But Idaho’s Department of Health and Welfare maintains that the Boise area is still at high risk.

The reason? The case rate, and the times that data are reported.

Under CDC guidelines, a key factor in determining community risk is the case rate, which has a benchmark of 200 cases per 100,000 people. Because the county’s rate of new COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 people is greater than 10, a case rate above 200 would place the county in the high-risk category.

The state health department says the case rate for Ada County is 212.4. On Thursday, the CDC said it was 194.6.

The cause of the difference, according to Idaho’s deputy state epidemiologist, Kathryn Turner, is how and when the CDC gets its data.

On Wednesday of each week, the CDC pulls online data that a state health department has published, Turner said. Health and Welfare, meanwhile, has more detailed data when it does its calculations on Friday, which could include cases that were added to the week’s tally after the CDC already ran its data.

“CDC is counting about 86 fewer cases in Ada County than actually were reported through Wednesday,” Turner said in an email.

“We have more precision in our data than the CDC does just because they’re trying to pull together all the data from all the states and territories, and so they can’t wait until the last minute and pull the data so (that) they have the most accurate data,” she said Friday afternoon. “It’s just a symptom of the situation we’re in.

“If a county tips over that 200 cases per 100,000 population mark, it makes all the difference.”

Turner said that in particular, people with COVID-19 risk factors, those who are not vaccinated and those who have not received booster doses should heed the mask recommendations.

There are not mask mandates in place, however.

Positivity rate climb slows

Idaho’s test positivity rate rose to 11.3% the week of June 12, according to updated data from the Department of Health and Welfare. Though the figure is more than double the 5% benchmark public health experts aim for, it increased only 0.3% from the prior week, which is a much slower pace than the past few weeks.

The test rate data is always delayed by a week. The positivity rate has increased for 10 straight weeks, according to the data, and local hospitals have noted a surge in patients in recent weeks. So far, the surge has been significantly smaller than those that hit the Gem State last year and over the winter.

Since the third week of May, the rate, which measures the portion of tests that come back positive, has jumped from 7.2% to 11.3%. Health officials have cautioned that, because of the prevalence of at-home tests and general lack of testing, the numbers likely do not paint a complete portrait of the disease in the community.

Over the weekend, the CDC signed off on authorizing Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines for children 6 months and older.

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